CIA arrests in Iran? Allegations point to smoldering covert war with US.

CIA arrests were perhaps Iranians working as informants for Western intelligence services. Iranian officials this week announced the arrests of a dozen spies.

A smoldering covert war pitting the United States against Iran took a new turn this week as Iranian officials announced the arrests of a dozen ?CIA spies? they said were targeting the country?s nuclear program.

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Iranian officials, including the country?s intelligence minister, did not release the identities or nationalities of the alleged spies, but intelligence analysts say they are probably Iranians working as informants for Western intelligence services.

?The main mission of this act of espionage was related to Iran?s progress in the fields of nuclear technology and also military and security activities,? said Parviz Sorouri, a member of Iran?s powerful parliamentary committee on national security and foreign policy, according to the official IRNA news agency. ?The US and Zionist regime?s espionage apparatuses were trying to damage Iran both from inside and outside with a heavy blow, using regional intelligence services.?

The potential ?CIA arrests? followed reports earlier in the week of other arrests in Iran. There were also reports that Hezbollah, the Iran-affiliated Shiite militia in Lebanon, has arrested alleged CIA informants.?

The latest Iranian allegations could not be verified, and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment, as it does as a rule on ?operational activities.? But the charges were the latest installment in a growing list of covert operations ? or accusations claiming such operations. That list includes the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists, explosions at Iranian factories and military installations, cyberattacks targeting Iran?s nuclear facilities, and ? on the other side ? the alleged Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington.

Iran has for years accused the US of working in conjunction with Israeli intelligence to thwart Iran?s nuclear program through covert operations. Many analysts assume that the Stuxnet computer worm that affected machines in Iran?s nuclear installations between June 2009 and the end of 2010 was developed in Israel with US assistance.

US officials have declined to acknowledge American involvement in the covert operations including Stuxnet. But Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton did claim early this year that the virus and other ?technological difficulties? had set back Iran?s nuclear progress.

Richard Clarke, a former White House terrorism adviser and author of the book, ?Cyber War: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do About It,? cites Stuxnet as a poster child for cyberwarfare.

The covert war on Iran?s nuclear program has advanced as diplomatic efforts have faltered, which have left Western powers with the option of economic sanctions for curbing Iran?s nuclear ambitions.

But some Iran analysts credit a tandem reliance on covert operations and economic sanctions as slowing Iran?s nuclear progress ? and thus as quieting the chorus of hawkish voices calling for airstrikes on Iran?s nuclear facilities.

On the other hand, the US presidential campaign has provided a venue for one-upmanship among candidates in terms of dealing with Iran. Some Republican candidates have inched closer to support for airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

The campaign has also provided a stage for discussion of the merits of covert operations against Iran, as well as for some acknowledgement that a covert war already exists.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich has taken to recommending covert US operations in Iran ? drawing mocking retorts from Democrats who say that Mr. Gingrich?s idea is behind the curve.

Earlier this week retired Gen. Wesley Clark, a former Democratic presidential aspirant, accused some Republican candidates of ?rattling the sabers for war with Iran.? He then singled out Gingrich for talking up covert action as if it were an untried option.

?One candidate? was ?placing heavy emphasis on covert action as though he had just invented the idea and nothing is happening now,? Mr. Clark said, referring to Gingrich. He called the notion ?a little bit cute, since the definition of covert action is that it cannot be acknowledged."

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/_kjibPTvI3o/CIA-arrests-in-Iran-Allegations-point-to-smoldering-covert-war-with-US

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Oil rises above $97 a barrel

NEW YORK (AP) ? Oil continued its up and down week Friday.

Benchmark crude oil rose $1.07 to $97.24 a barrel in morning trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, tracking the rise in U.S. stock markets. The contract closed Wednesday in New York at $96.17, down $1.84.

Markets in the U.S. were closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, and will close early Friday on what is expected to be a light trading day.

Oil had fallen earlier as Europe's debt crisis continues to undermine confidence the continent will avoid recession next year.

In London, Brent crude for January delivery fell 50 cents to $106.80 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Investor concern that fiscal austerity measures aimed at lowering Europe's debt levels will hurt global economic growth and oil demand has helped pull crude back from above $103 last week.

Uncertainty about contagion spreading from Greece to Portugal, Italy, Spain and Ireland has begun to undermine confidence in Germany and France. The yield on Germany's 10-year bond rose above the 10-year UK government bond for the first time since 2009. And late Thursday, Moody's downgraded Hungary's bonds to junk status.

"The eurozone sovereign crisis is starting to threaten the bond markets of even the most solid European economy ? Germany," Barclays Capital said in a report.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil was flat at $2.97 per gallon and gasoline futures lost half a cent to $2.5165 per gallon. Natural gas added 4.2 cents to $3.65 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2011-11-25-Oil%20Prices/id-72f2c175618b42a6a4d06a3077d4e71b

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Analysis: In India, a sense of crisis fans embers of reform (Reuters)

NEW DELHI (Reuters) ? Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's move to open India's protected retail sector to global supermarket giants last week surprised critics who had written him off as a policy ditherer, but he was probably motivated by expedience rather than any reformist zeal.

India's stellar economic growth is slowing, the rupee has skidded to record lows and inflation is stuck close to a double-digit clip. Faced with this predicament, Singh may have simply weighed the benefits of opening a $450 billion market to foreign investment against the political risk, and taken his chance.

Just as he did back in 1991, when the central bank was forced to airlift 47 tonnes of gold to Europe as collateral for a loan to avert a sovereign default, Singh has opted for liberalization to deal with urgent economic problems.

"In India, we've always achieved economic reform at gunpoint," said political commentator Swapan Dasgupta.

Many seized on Singh's retail sector decision, taken in the face of dissent within his own cabinet, as a sign that the reform process he had helped father was finally back on track. The frontpage headline of the Economic Times on Friday crowed: "Hello Walmart, Goodbye Inertia".

Unpopular, saddled with petulant coalition allies, up against a combative opposition and facing elections in five states next year, Singh's Congress party is likely to shy away from far-reaching economic reforms that could cost it votes.

Nevertheless, the move to allow multinationals into the retail market could be the first of several liberalization initiatives aimed at silencing complaints from business leaders and even its own supporters that this is a government adrift.

"They are not reformers," said Surjit Bhalla, chairman of Oxus Investments. "But, given its huge unpopularity, Congress is now looking to do what it can. There's more than an even chance that reforms will continue."

Next up may be a decision to open India's airline sector, which is struggling with cost pressures and a fierce price war, to foreign investors.

RISK AND REWARD

Singh, who will be 80 next year, earned his reformist stripes as finance minister back in 1991 when he prised open India's state-stifled economy, opening the way for a long run of dazzling growth.

However, as prime minister since 2004, he has presided over less spectacular reforms such as opening the country's nuclear power market and freeing petrol and fertilizer pricing. And his government, beleaguered by corruption scandals, has slipped into a policy paralysis since it won a second term two years ago, taking the gloss off the "India Shining" story.

Asia's third-largest economy is nowhere near the crisis it was facing 20 years ago. However, growth has sagged since it topped 9 percent for three years in a row before the global financial crisis, and a monetary tightening cycle to stamp out inflation that began in March 2010 is exacerbating the slowdown.

The move to allow multinationals into India's vast retail market will eventually help unclog some of the supply bottlenecks that stoke inflation.

It will also generate sorely needed foreign capital, not least for infrastructure investment, which the government's latest five-year plan targets at an ambitious $1 trillion.

The government has taken other steps recently to attract funds from abroad. It has raised the limit on foreign investment in government and corporate bonds, and the cabinet has approved a law that - once it has parliamentary approval - will allow limited foreign direct investment in pensions firms.

While none of this will address the country's economic ills in the short term, it may bring an immediate political gain.

Welcoming in the world's big supermarket brands was risky. It will fuel fury with Congress among the millions of neighborhood store owners, who could make the party pay in next year's state elections.

But the promise of world-class shopping will be welcomed by India's growing ranks of urban middle classes, and Singh's uncharacteristic boldness could shore up public faith in his government as it gears up for a general election in 2014.

If there is a new phase of reforms underway, it is likely to be tentative rather than sweeping.

Some reforms, such as removing subsidies on diesel, are politically untouchable because of the backlash the party would face from the poor. Even the decision to open up the retail sector was hedged with provisos that will protect shopkeepers in small towns and rural areas.

The government's plans to pass a food security bill, which would widen subsidies for the poor, are an example of how there has been little change in the populist stance of the Congress party. Critics say the bill will only add to the fiscal deficit.

Nevertheless, with its back to the wall, the government appears to have snapped out of its inertia.

"Reforms have been thrust upon it," said Bhalla. "As long as the pressure is on this government it will continue to act."

(Editing by Alistair Scrutton and Ron Popeski)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/asia/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111127/wl_nm/us_india_reform

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